Cristina Gena Dascălu, Doriana Agop-Forna, Magda Ecaterina Antohe
ABSTRACT
A subject of high interest in epidemiology is to register monthly and yearly the prevalence of certain diseases, in order to make prognosis regarding the expected number of new patients. The best way to solve such problems is provided by the Time Series Analysis technique, which is a statistical modelling method able to make forecasts. We discuss about the theoretical bases of this method and we exemplify its practical applications in making forecasts about the expected number of Influenza cases in Romania, during a period of 11 weeks (March – May 2025) based on weekly records about Influenza during the last two seasons (2023-2024 and 2024-2025). The forecasts were made in SPSS 29.0, using the Expert Modeler module, and the best suitable models found were Simple Seasonal and ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,0,0). The paper presents the results of this analysis and the predicted values, with 95% confidence intervals.
DOI : 10.62610/RJOR.2025.1.17.88
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